A good way to figure out what direction we’re headed is to look back.  This time last year - Jan 1, 2007 - Feb 27, 2007 there were 11 homes sold in the Hollywood Riviera.  The average sale price was $1,069K.  Of the 11 sold properties the lowest priced sale was $828K and the highest priced sale was $1,400K.   The average Days on Market was 42 days and average dollar per square foot was $586. 

What’s interesting is to see what the same amount of time - 58 days - both of a first quarter (not typically the “hottest” quarter of the year) held in 2008.   10 homes sold in the 1st 58 days of 2008 with an average price of $1,147K - that is a 6.8% increase - yes - increase in average price.  This is interesting though - the lowest price home to sell in this time period 2008 was $605K and the highest was $2,130K - now there is a spread for you.  The average $ per square foot was similar to last year - $569K, a tiny bit less than last year.  The Days on Market was essentially the same as well, 43 compared to 42.  Of the ten sold, half were under a million and half were over a million dollars.  In 2007, 6 were over a million and 5 were under a million dollars - things haven’t changed much is what I’m seeing here. 

What’s going to happen as we move forward - I don’t have a crystal ball but…if things stay the same like they have so far - the month of March 2007 went like this:  10 homes sold last year in the month of March - 31 days.  (The same amount of homes that sold in 58 days.)   March is when things start to heat up - a good time of year for sellers usually.  The average price was $1.172K  - interesting that the average price doesn’t change much although the parameters to get there sure do - March last year had 10 sales and the lowest was $1 million and the highest was $1.3K - very tight price range.  Average DOM was 44, similar to what we’ve been seeing, so no news there.    If we do this in March 08 - we currently have 24 homes for sale - so almost half of them would be sold by April 1st.  We all know there will be new inventory though…sure hope so - what’s on now sure is getting stale.   We’ve had 22 homes on the market for a while - there were just 2 new listings to hit the market within the last week - one today that looks amazing and one that is pretty decent from last week.  Curious to see what happens…can’t wait to make the report!

Will things pick up in North San Diego County Real Estate for the up coming spring season? There are some good indications that we will see some increased activity soon. First, interest rates are still near historic lows and Uncle Ben and crew at the Fed are hinting strongly that they will lower rates to keep the economy from going into a recession. Also, normal sellers have been noticeably absent from the winter market. Many listings are foreclosures or short sales. The average seller is gun shy about having to compete with these give away offerings. Soon pent up demand both to sell and buy will have to give way. Expect some good action soon. That’s my call.

I I am seeing increased activity in our market on the Palos Verdes Peninsula which follows normal trends for this time of year.  Spring is the “season” for real estate. 

In the last 6 days, 20 new listings came on the market, 12 properties became Contingent, 10 properties went into Pending and 5 properties closed escrow (from sales a month or two ago).   Some of the Pending sales actually were properties that sold with multiple offers and went staight into Pending (with no contingencies).

This activity gives hope that our market is acting in a normal fashion.

Time to spruce up the old homestead and get ready to sell?  Here’s an article no one wants to read about what to do.  It’s tiring just thinking about all that work. The best thing you can do is have a real estate professional come and view your home and make sensible suggestions on your personal situation.  I can tell you from years of experience, if you home looks bad or smells bad so will the offers you receive.  But you don’t have to spend a fortune or months doing a remodel.  Have a seasoned professional talk with you about what your budget and schedule will bare.  Then make the most of what you have to work with.   Ok, now do the thing with the two asprin.

The following information was reported from HomeDex for the month of January 2008.

· The median price for all homes in North San Diego County – single-family
detached and single- family attached – declined to $480,000 in January 2008 from
$485,000 in December 2007.

· The median-priced single-family detached (SFD) home in North San Diego
County decreased 1.14 percent to $562,500 in January 2008 from $569,000 in
December 2007. SFD median prices in Non-North County zip codes decreased
5.86 percent from $450,000 in December 2007 to $423,650 in January 2008.

· Median SFD prices in North San Diego County fell 10 percent from
$625,000 January 2007 to January 2008.

The median price fell 18.05 percent in Non-North County from $516,938 from January 2007 to January 2008.

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Paul,

It would seem that the mortgage companies are now intentionally forcing persons out of their homes…..strange as that may sound. After two close together prime rate reductions my daughter’s floating interest rate was just raised to 10% on an under $200,000 note. Another friend living in Las Vegas just received the same news, on a considerably larger note, and were forced to default on their mortgage.

I cannot believe these are isolated events.

Hi Bob,

You are right. Americans are being forced out of their homes by the millions. Lenders who make the loans and the government that regulates how they operate should be held accountable. Most people would prefer to keep their homes and make up for missed payments or get adjustable mortgages under control. Lenders are losing big money to forecloses. In my humble opinion it’s a big mess that could be avoided by just using common sense and keeping people in their homes using reasonable loss mitigation techniques which would be a lot more effective than having millions of foreclosures and millions of people with ruined credit… And this is not even taking into consideration the millions more who will be doing short sales, owing taxes on the loss, having a debt to the lenders, and having ruined credit.  So much for the consumer driving the economy.

All of this creates a tremendous opportunity for those who can take advantage. There will be plenty of renters for investors who buy foreclosures. And the United States will experience 15% growth in new households purchasing real estate in the next decade. The opportunity is presenting itself. You should see the great buys here in Oceanside, CA.

Call me and I’ll show how to ease the pain on your daughter’s note.

(Bob Durbin is President of the USS Cassin Young Historical Society, United States Naval Maritime Museum.  And proud shipmate of my father Master Chief Marion Douglas “Tex”  Cauthen, USN.)

5425 Kipling Lane, Carlsbad CA 92008

2 bedroom 2 bath 1344 sf. Age 55+ Community.

$255,000

Year end statistics have recently been released by Sandicor the regional multiple listing service for San Diego. A total of 30,500 homes were sold in San Diego County in 2007. Of that number 5200 were foreclosures. These numbers are fairly normal in any market. Even more revealing is that virtually all of the foreclosure listing sell at 98.2% of list price. Other homes on the market sell at an average of 95.5% of list price. The reason foreclosures sell so high is they are already priced to sell.